Are the HODLers gathering patiently? On-chain analysis of BTC

While short-term investors (STH) have been plagued by the comings and goings of the market since March, long-term investors (STH) appear to be resuming gradual accumulation and waiting for the market to decide. On-chain analysis of the situation.

Consolidation is protracted

Bitcoin (BTC) price tests the $66,000 mid-zone after that another failed attempt to exceed $72,000.

While short-term investors (STH) have been shaken by market developments and exits since March, long-term investors (LTH) seem to be resuming gradual accumulation and waiting for the market to decide. On-chain analysis of the situation.

Figure 1: Bitcoin (BTC) price

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Circulating power topology

If the last months of the bull market tested the patience of speculators and short-term investors (STH), long-term investors (LTH) and HODLers appear to be little affected by the recent price action.

For context, remember that LTH held supply is defined as the total volume of UTXOs held for more than 155 days off exchanges. By definition, it opposes the supply of STH, which measures the total volume of UTXOs held for less than 155 days off exchanges.

Of the nearly 19.7 million BTC in circulation, the LTH offering brings together nearly 14.1 million BTC and STH’s supply represents more than 3.3 million BTC, 71.5% and 16.7% of the circulating supply respectively.

So it seems thatmost bitcoin supply is held autonomously, off exchanges (sovereign supply)whose relative share tends to decrease over time.

BTC stock 180524

Figure 2: Distribution of circulating power

The distribution of BTC volumes acquired since the launch of Bitcoin by price bands allows us to estimate that the supply of LTH includes all BTC earned below $40,000 and a smaller portion of BTC earned between $40,000 and the old ATH of $69,000.

The STH offer includes all BTC gained above $40,000 up to the new ATH of $73,000with a high concentration of bids obtained between $69,000 and $66,000.

In reality, the delivery of STH is subject to increased financial and psychological pressure a small portion of LTH is currently in latent loss.

BTC URPD 180524

Figure 3: Breakdown of circulating supplies by procurement cost groups

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Patience and accumulation at the top

In this context, price stagnation the phase of LTH reaccumulation begins to manifest itself after a significant distribution between December 2023 and March 2024.

That suggestssentiment is changing in this groupwhich, despite the market slowdown, prefers to keep latent profits and wait for higher prices to restore its distribution.

Delivery BTC LTH 180524

Figure 4: Offer from long-term investors

The spending and profit-taking behavior of long-term investors was shorter than during the previous bull market, lasting approximately 48 days.

This explains it minimal performance above the old ATH which did not allow for a real price discovery phase within a few months, limiting the opportunity for LTHs looking to make a profit.

BTC LTH SBI 180524

Figure 5: Indicator of long-term investor spending

Another reason is the lower latent profitability of LTH at current price levels, which represents only a third of the profit-taking potential of the previous bull market.

Although the 3.5 multiplier seems tempting, it is rare to see long-term investors mobilize in a massive and coordinated manner unless LTH-MVRV goes above 5the number that would be reached if the price of BTC exceeded $100,000.

BTC LTH-MVRV 180524

Figure 6: Investor profitability ratio in the long run

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Short-term outlook

While previous BTC bull market ends were all marked by saturation of bullish momentum (measured here by the Bitcoin Momentum Oscillator) followed by a quick reversal to bullish momentum, the current market context appears to be different.

Despite a brief saturation in February-March, bullish momentum has slowed without signaling a reversal or weaknesswhich is a particularly constructive sign in the medium and long term.

BTC BMO 180524

Figure 7: Bitcoin Momentum Oscillator (original version)

As mentioned at the beginning of this analysis, high concentration of STH supply was obtained between $69,000 and $66,000 in spot marketsas evidenced by the density map of acquired BTC volumes according to their purchase price.

After yet another failure to break above $72,000, BTC price has crossed this zone and is now at the bottom of this accumulation range.

Keeping the price close to this accumulation pile is crucial to avoid a new STH panic that could generate significant selling pressure.

BTC Heatmap 180524

Figure 8: Density Map of BTC Buy Zones

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Summary of this on-chain analysis

In the end, the data discussed today indicate thisthe reaccumulation behavior of long-term investors is beginning to show after distribution from December 2023 to March 2024.

There is a shift in sentiment in this group: LTH prefers to retain its latent profits despite the market slowdown and wait for higher prices to restore their distribution

Despite a brief saturation in February-March, bullish momentum has slowed without signaling a reversal or weaknesswhich is a particularly constructive sign in the medium and long term.

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Sources – Figures 1 to 7: Glassnode, Figures 8 and 9: The Bitcoin Lab

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