Bitcoin, return to the bottom of the range? June 17, 2024 BTC Analysis

Bitcoin price action has pulled a seemingly endless range over the past 3 months. In recent days, a bearish trend seems to be building in search of a confrontation with the range supports. So what are the levels to watch on BTC in this upcoming battle?

It is Monday, June 17, 2024, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is around $66,000.

This Monday morning, the performance map of the crypto ecosystem is reddish. The phase of latent consolidation in which we are evolving does not seem to want to end.

Some of the strongest tokens in recent weeks are correcting more heavily, at a time when Bitcoin remains strong, is recovering only 10% from its annual highs.

Mapping the performance of the cryptoecosystem over the past week

Bitcoin is once again putting pressure on altcoin holders. Its dominance is unabated, well established between 54% and 56%.

It is interesting to see how the 20-week moving average supports the bullish flow as all averages align to the upside. In the coming weeks, we should see a meeting between this bull flow and the 56% level, which has always acted as a barrier until now.

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Evolution of bitcoin dominance on a weekly basis

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Institutional buying is slowing, marking the end of a record buying streak. However, the volumes of this class of investors have been stable for 3 months now; Blackrock’s ETF, “IBIT”, stood out by remaining positive over the past 2 trading sessions unlike all other spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.


History of Bitcoin ETF flows on the spot

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BTC works on balance of scale

The broad range in which Bitcoin operates is still in place despite renewed volatility from last week. This however closed to absorption above the mid-range in perfect alignment with the 7-week moving average. This close bodes well for a week that will offer few macroeconomic catalysts. On this topic, the most important meeting with some data on the labor market will take place on Thursday.

Bitcoin’s objective this week is to hold the middle of its range and the 7-week moving average to maintain positive polarity. In the event of a bearish overhang, the 20-week moving average and bottom of the range could cause price reaction.

This means that if closing the week below the 2 moving averages of 7 and 20 weeks would be a sign of deterioration, let’s keep in mind that we are in a range and that this range is part of a multi-month uptrend. The probability of maintaining the range in order to exit from the north therefore remains higher than in the opposite scenario.

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Bitcoin USDT

Weekly Bitcoin Price Chart

On a daily basis, Bollinger Bands are opening and prices are holding between the low BB and the 7-day moving average. The configuration gradually takes the form of a bearish current with the 20-day average moving south. The 50-day moving average is being tested at the time of writing.

A close of today’s candle below the 50 moving average would trigger the first bearish warning with respect to the targets we mentioned earlier:

  • 20-week moving average : $64,000;
  • Lower limit of the range : $59,000 to $62,000 band.

The target for the next few days for the bull camp will be a close above the 7-day moving average to degrade the bearish trend taking hold. The bear camp, on the other hand, needs to maintain the flow and push the supports in search of $56,000.

BTC daily

Bitcoin price chart in daily data

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total, Bitcoin is still stuck in its reach. Unless the weekly trend is challenged, the daily chart shows signs of weakness. In addition, the supports are facing the formation of a bearish current that could gradually pick up speed.

So do you think BTC can sustain its range? Feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.

Have a great time and see you next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.

Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode

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